Tag Archives: credit crisis

Give and make

Big Banker says-

“Banks don’t give loans,” (as the headline read) they make loans.” “Give” implies that the money does not need to be repaid.

The verb is unimportant (unless it is forgive or write-off), the noun is. A loan, whether “given” or “made” is money that has to be “returned”.

Be wary of lending to someone who does not care about the interest rate, for he might not have any intention of repaying the loan, one saying goes. Don’t know if the same applies to AIG and the punitive LIBOR + 8.5% interest rate, but since the US government is the majority owner of the company, and governments never return money to anyone, who knows. AIG’s demands keep on increasing though, with no information on where the money is going.

A hired gun

Alan Greenspan, former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, and the man everybody blames for the current financial crisis – the “housing bubble” that was a “result” of his loose monetary policy in the first half of this decade, was a close friend of Ayn Rand. In 1966, he wrote an essay – “Gold and Economic Freedom”-

A fully free banking system and fully consistent gold standard have not as yet been achieved. But prior to World War I, the banking system in the United States (and in most of the world) was based on gold and even though governments intervened occasionally, banking was more free than controlled. Periodically, as a result of overly rapid credit expansion, banks became loaned up to the limit of their gold reserves, interest rates rose sharply, new credit was cut off, and the economy went into a sharp, but short-lived recession. (Compared with the depressions of 1920 and 1932, the pre-World War I business declines were mild indeed.) It was limited gold reserves that stopped the unbalanced expansions of business activity, before they could develop into the post-World Was I type of disaster. The readjustment periods were short and the economies quickly reestablished a sound basis to resume expansion.

But the process of cure was misdiagnosed as the disease: if shortage of bank reserves was causing a business decline-argued economic interventionists-why not find a way of supplying increased reserves to the banks so they never need be short! If banks can continue to loan money indefinitely-it was claimed-there need never be any slumps in business. And so the Federal Reserve System was organized in 1913. It consisted of twelve regional Federal Reserve banks nominally owned by private bankers, but in fact government sponsored, controlled, and supported. Credit extended by these banks is in practice (though not legally) backed by the taxing power of the federal government. Technically, we remained on the gold standard; individuals were still free to own gold, and gold continued to be used as bank reserves. But now, in addition to gold, credit extended by the Federal Reserve banks (“paper reserves”) could serve as legal tender to pay depositors.

When business in the United States underwent a mild contraction in 1927, the Federal Reserve created more paper reserves in the hope of forestalling any possible bank reserve shortage. More disastrous, however, was the Federal Reserve’s attempt to assist Great Britain who had been losing gold to us because the Bank of England refused to allow interest rates to rise when market forces dictated (it was politically unpalatable). The reasoning of the authorities involved was as follows: if the Federal Reserve pumped excessive paper reserves into American banks, interest rates in the United States would fall to a level comparable with those in Great Britain; this would act to stop Britain’s gold loss and avoid the political embarrassment of having to raise interest rates. The “Fed” succeeded; it stopped the gold loss, but it nearly destroyed the economies of the world, in the process. The excess credit which the Fed pumped into the economy spilled over into the stock market-triggering a fantastic speculative boom. Belatedly, Federal Reserve officials attempted to sop up the excess reserves and finally succeeded in braking the boom. But it was too late: by 1929 the speculative imbalances had become so overwhelming that the attempt precipitated a sharp retrenching and a consequent demoralizing of business confidence. As a result, the American economy collapsed.

In 1961, he spoke about “Antitrust”-

“Competition” is an active, not a passive, noun. It applies to the entire sphere of economic activity, not merely to production, but also to trade; it implies the necessity of taking action to affect the conditions of the market in one’s own favor. The error of the nineteenth-century observers was that they restricted a wide abstraction — competition — to a narrow set of particulars, to the “passive” competition projected by their own interpretation of classical economics. As a result, they concluded that the alleged “failure” of this fictitious “passive competition” negated the entire theoretical structure of classical economics, including the demonstration of the fact that laissez-faire is the most efficient and productive of all possible economic systems. They concluded that a free market, by its nature, leads to its own destruction — and they came to the grotesque contradiction of attempting to preserve the freedom of the market by government controls, i.e., to preserve the benefits of laissez-faire by abrogating it.

The crucial question which they failed to ask is whether “active” competition does inevitably lead to the establishment of coercive monopolies, as they supposed — or whether a laissez-faire economy of “active” competition has a built-in regulator that protects and preserves it. That is the question which we must now examine.
[...]
The churning of a nation’s capital, in a fully free economy, would be continuously pushing capital into profitable areas — and this would effectively control the competitive price and production policies of business firms, making a coercive monopoly impossible to maintain. It is only in a so-called mixed economy that a coercive monopoly can flourish, protected from the discipline of the capital markets by franchises, subsidies, and special privileges from governmental regulators.

To sum up: The entire structure of antitrust statutes in this country is a jumble of economic irrationality and ignorance. It is the product: (a) of a gross misinterpretation of history, and (b) of rather naive, and certainly unrealistic, economic theories.

As a last resort, some people argue that at least the antitrust laws haven’t done any harm. They assert that even though the competitive process itself inhibits coercive monopolies, there is no harm in making doubly sure by declaring certain economic actions to be illegal.

But the very existence of those undefinable statutes and contradictory case law inhibits businessmen from undertaking what would otherwise be sound productive ventures. No one will ever know what new products, processes, machines, and cost-saving mergers failed to come into existence, killed by the Sherman Act before they were born. No one can ever compute the price that all of us have paid for that Act which, by inducing less effective use of capital, has kept our standard of living lower than would otherwise have been possible.

In 1963, he wrote about “The Assault on Integrity”-

Protection of the consumer against “dishonest and unscrupulous business practices” has become a cardinal ingredient of welfare statism. Left to their own devices, it is alleged, businessmen would attempt to sell unsafe food and drugs, fraudulent securities, and shoddy buildings. Thus, it is argued, the Pure Food and Drug Administration, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the numerous building regulatory agencies are indispensable if the consumer is to be protected from the “greed” of the businessman.

But it is precisely the “greed” of the businessman or, more appropriately, his profit-seeking, which is the unexcelled protector of the consumer.

What collectivists refuse to recognize is that it is in the self-interest of every businessman to have a reputation for honest dealings and a quality product. Since the market value of a going business is measured by its money-making potential, reputation or “good will” is as much an asset as its physical plant and equipment.
[...]
It requires years of consistently excellent performance to acquire a reputation and to establish it as a financial asset[...] Thus the incentive to scrupulous performance operates on all levels of a given field of production. It is a built-in safeguard of a free enterprise system and the only real protection of consumers against business dishonesty.
[...]
To paraphrase Gresham’s Law: bad “protection” drives out good. The attempt to protect the consumer by force undercuts the protection he gets from incentive. First, it undercuts the value of reputation by placing the reputable company on the same basis as the unknown, the newcomer, or the fly-by-nighter. It declares, in effect, that all are equally suspect and that years of evidence to the contrary do not free a man from that suspicion. Second it grants an automatic (though, in fact, unachievable) guarantee of safety to the products of any company that complies with its arbitrarily set minimum standards.
[...]
Government regulations do not eliminate potentially dishonest individuals, but merely make their activities harder to detect or easier to hush up. Furthermore, the possibility of individual dishonesty applies to government employees fully as much as to any other group of men. There is nothing to guarantee the superior judgment, knowledge, and integrity of an inspector or a bureaucract—and the deadly consequences of entrusting him with arbitrary power are obvious.
[...]
Capitalism is based on self-interest and self-esteem; it holds integrity and trustworthiness as cardinal virtues and makes them pay off in the marketplace, thus demanding that men survive by means of virtues, not of vices. It is this superlatively moral system that the welfare statists propose to improve upon by means of preventative law, snooping bureaucrats, and the chronic goad of fear.

(All three essays are available in the book – Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal)

Here was a man who was absolutely against regulation – at least he wrote and spoke about the issues involved like he was. And then he went ahead and joined the very Federal Reserve, the very Regulator that printed paper and called it money, and controlled competition among banks, and sanctioned fraud under the guise of “fractional reserve banking.” But he has an out. He is supposed to have told a colleague “to distinguish carefully between what he believes personally and how he acts as chairman of the Fed.”

To the present, according to Greenspan, in March of this year, he said – “Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholder’s equity (myself especially) are in a state of shocked disbelief.” In a NYT article that “takes a hard new look at a Greenspan legacy”, he is quoted as saying-

“In a market system based on trust, reputation has a significant economic value. I am therefore distressed at how far we have let concerns for reputation slip in recent years.”

and

“Risks in financial markets, including derivatives markets, are being regulated by private parties.”

and

“There is nothing involved in federal regulation per se which makes it superior to market regulation.”

He is right most of the time, except for when he is in a state of “shocked disbelief.” He shouldn’t be in such a state because he should know that under the system he was working, institutions could palm off doubtful loans to Mae and Mac and earn “commissions” for their services, banks no longer needed to have any reputation or manage risk like they would have had to, if they were on their own – the Fed allowed them to “create credit”, they were “too big to fail” – government rules had replaced the need for reputation. Now all that the businessmen had to do was to make money without bothering to create trust in the market – the government had done the dirty work for them. As Andrew West writes in the aftermath of the Enron-Arthur Anderson fiasco-

I suggest that Alan Greenspan, forty years ago, identified the most fundamental cause of auditors’ current moral and professional grayness. Government regulation has diminished the value of establishing one’s reputation on the free market, and thus reduced the benefits of differentiation. Why compete to be the “best” governmental-form-filler-outer? When standards are seen as government-authorized, there is little reward but great risk in deviating from or going beyond those standards. Of what value are notes one makes on the margins of one’s IRS Form 1040?

Greenspan is responsible for the mess because he accepted the job of Fed Chairman, because he chose a job that necessarily meant an intervention in the market – distorting the market. Once he does that, he has no business being shocked at the different ways in which such intervention influences people’s behavior. However, placing the entire blame on him is unfair. Intervention in the market is bad – it is a statist idea. But Greenspan was simply a hired gun, one among many; it was the government that hired him.

“[Atlas Shrugged was written] to glorify the real kind of productive, free-enterprise businessman in a way he has never been glorified before. [But] I make mincemeat out of the kind of businessman…that runs to government for assistance, subsidies, legislation and regulation,” Greenspan’s close friend Rand is supposed to have said about her magnum opus. Sadly, those are the only ones that are left. A system of government intervention can never make people virtuous. But there are two things it can do better than no other system can – strip some of them of their virtues – break them, and make beggars out of the rest. Greenspan is an example of the former.

The “credit crunch” myth

Over the last few weeks, all newspapers have gone to town about why the bailout package was necessary to “unfreeze” the US credit system and that businesses were suffering from lack of funds due to a “credit crunch.” Economists V.V. Chari, Lawrence Christiano, and Patrick J. Kehoe of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis have gone through data from the Federal Reserve Board till October 8, 2008, and claim that the “credit crunch” is a myth; well I might be putting words into their mouths. They examine four claims made by pink papers and “policymakers”-

  1. Bank lending to nonfinancial corporations and individuals has declined sharply.
  2. Interbank lending is essentially nonexistent.
  3. Commercial paper issuance by nonfinancial corporations has declined sharply and rates have risen to unprecedented levels.
  4. Banks play a large role in channeling funds from savers to borrowers.

and say that all four claims are false. Read about it and download their paper from Organizations and Markets where Peter Klein asks – What Credit Crunch?

He said, she said

In response to Jacob Weisberg’s column in Slate magazine (one which I have already commented on), Peter Klein of Organizations and Markets refers to a WSJ article by Charles Calomiris; Calomiris writes that Basel norms, and not deregulation, should be blamed for the credit crisis-

It’s grind-your-favorite-axe day on the network news shows. The financial crisis is all the fault of dreaded “deregulation,” shout some pundits; others blame the “small government” mentality of the Bush administration and Republicans in Congress.
[...]
[S]ubprime lending, securitization and dealing in swaps were all activities that banks and other financial institutions have had the ability to engage in all along. There is no connection between any of these and deregulation. On the contrary, it was the ever-growing Basel Committee rules for measuring bank risk and allocating capital to absorb that risk (just try reading the Basel standards if you don’t believe me) that failed miserably. The Basel rules outsourced the measurement of risk to ratings agencies or to the modelers within the banks themselves. Incentives were not properly aligned, as those that measured risk profited from underestimating it and earned large fees for doing so.

That ineffectual, Rube Goldberg apparatus was, of course, the direct result of the politicization of prudential regulation by the Basel Committee, which was itself the direct consequence of pursuing “international coordination” among countries, which produced rules that work politically but not economically. International cooperation, in case you haven’t heard, is exactly what the French and the Germans now say was missing in the past few years.

So why blame deregulation and small government? The social psychologist Gustav Jahoda says that unreasonable beliefs often arise in circumstances where people lack control and need to believe in something to get them through a highly stressful situation. And a fellow named Machiavelli might help us to understand a different reason for simplistic explanations.

So, Greenspan ran a loose monetary policy. Banks and mortgage companies slush with cheap funds lent it out to people who couldn’t afford to repay them; they packaged the mortgages, securitized them and sold them as MBS (mortgage backed securities); most sold the mortgages off to Mae and Mac who issued their own MBS. People who bought them used CDS (credit default swaps) to insure against the risk of default; AIG underwrote many CDS contracts; so did many other financial institutions. The housing loan defaults triggered a fall in the value of MBS, a corresponding re-rating of various financial institutions and a panic in the CDS market on whether the contracts would be met; Mae and Mac had to be nationalized because their securities were “implicitly” guaranteed by the US government. Banks no longer knew whom to trust and whom not to; the fall in the value of MBS cleaned out most balance sheets; and the credit market came to a grinding halt. This is what I can make out of everything I have read until now.

So who are to blame here?

  1. The Fed under Greenspan for its “bad” monetary policy (no one seemed to mind it when the going was good though).
  2. Mortgage companies who loaned out money cheaply knowing they could palm the loans off to Mae and Mac (“housing for all”).
  3. The government for having created Mae and Mac and thus granting incentives for bad practices.
  4. Financial institutions that played around with derivatives without understanding the risk involved.
  5. Credit rating agencies that granted AAA ratings without measuring the risk.
  6. Politicians who touted Basel and its risk measurement models as some kind of panacea and who forced it on to banks.

Should deregulation or lack of regulation be blamed? In the socialist universe, yes; because their ideology allows for massive government failure and abdication of responsibility, but not “market failure”. Monetary policy ills are acceptable to them (1); socialism in housing is acceptable (3), but profiteering is not (2); financial institutions endangering the economy – not acceptable (4); (5) and (6) – don’t ask.

This is why they blame a deregulated derivatives market and profiteering, and want controls placed on them. And no argument to the contrary will move them. Donkeys will learn Latin before pragmatists learn economics. Libertarians are “intellectually immature”. Indeed.

Leverage

While Sudeshna Sen complains about “how every kerbside operator thinks they know better than Hank Paulson what’s going on,” I am going to write a few paragraphs on yet another word that is going to join the list of hitherto unknown words that can now be heard almost everywhere – leverage.

A word that has its origins in physics – applying a small amount of force on one end to lift a heavy object on the other end through the process of magnification of force – leveraging in finance refers to the practice of using debt instead of equity in business so that profits and the return on equity (ROE) can be maximized.

In any business, ROE and its maximization plays a very important role. Consider an example where a business has two shareholders – X and Y – both investing $100 in the venture – it has not borrowed money, yet. And assume that the business of the firm is such that it can easily earn 20% return on its assets (ROA). In our example, the assets = liabilities = $200; so the firm earns $40. Assuming that there are no expenses involved, the entire earnings are profit; the ROE is 20%. Now, the business requires more money to grow, and the management has a few alternatives available -

  1. increase equity by accepting more money from existing shareholders – X and Y.
  2. increase equity by accepting money from new shareholder Z.
  3. borrow money from PQR bank.

If the firm goes for options 1 or 2, and brings in an additional $200 of equity, neither the ROA nor the ROE change. $400 of assets will result in earnings of $80 and the ROE remains unchanged at 20%. If the firm borrows $200 from PQR bank however (option 3), at (say) 10% interest, the situation changes. Now, the assets are $400, and the ROA being 20%, earnings are $80 – same as cases 1 and 2. But since interest needs to be paid on the loan (10% of $200), profits are $80 – $20 = $60. But even after paying interest, the shareholders are better off because the ROE is now 30%. On an equity base of $200, while they were earning $40 before taking out a loan, they are now earning $60. As long as banks are willing to lend the firm money at interest rates lower than the firm’s ROA, borrowing money instead of raising equity makes eminent sense. If PQR lends an additional $1600 to the firm, then-

  • the total assets = $2000,
  • liabilities on account of loans = $1800, and
  • equity = $200.

And in this scenario,

  • earnings = $400,
  • profits = $400 – $180 (10% of $1800) = $220
  • ROE = $220 / $200 = 110%

Who doesn’t like a 110% return on his investment? Of course, the case I am using is simplistic, the spread/ margin is huge, the case of the shareholder borrowing money and pumping it in as equity etc is not considered (the Modigliani-Miller theorem) but this is how it works. And the debt-equity ratio (one of the leverage or gearing ratios) in our case is 9 : 1 or 9 or 900% (Deutsche Bank’s ratio is 50 : 1, and 60 : 1 for Barclays. Comforting?)

The problem starts when the return on assets falls below the rate of interest paid on debt, whatever the reason. If the business scenario changes and the ROA drops to 5%, or the bank increases its interest rate to 25%, or the firm loses part of its assets in a bad investment, or the bank calls in some part of its loan forcing the firm to indulge in a fire sale of some of its assets (deleveraging), then the whole scheme will collapse and the firm will begin hemorrhaging money. This is what leveraging essentially is.

People, particularly the idiots who pretend to be experts and write columns in newspapers that barely serves the role of toilet paper, should know that the worldwide credit crisis has not been caused by excess leveraging nor has deleveraging exacerbated it. The crisis would not have happened if the leveraging was done on the basis of loans issued from sound money – real savings – and not magic money. Government intervention, central banking, magic money and monetary policy are the real culprits. Read the Austrian School view on deleveraging here-

Is it true that if every bank were to attempt to “fix” its balance sheet, the collective outcome would be disastrous for the real economy? On the contrary, by adjusting their balance sheet to true conditions, banks would lay the foundation for a sustained economic recovery. After all, by trimming their lending, banks by implication also curtail the expansion of credit “out of thin air.” As we have seen, it is this type of credit that weakens wealth generators and hence leads to economic impoverishment. Contrary to the proponents of the “paradox of deleveraging” we can only conclude that if every bank were to aim at fixing its balance sheet, in the process curtailing the expansion of credit “out of thin air,” this would lay the foundation for a healthy economic recovery.

Risk is something that also needs mention. If someone invests his own funds, his maximum loss is limited to that investment. If he borrows money and invests, however, he is liable to pay off the loan even if his investment ends up as a dud. If you can take risks and understand what it is all about, or get a high from doing it, leverage, or follow Warren Buffett’s advice and don’t borrow money for investment purposes. There is are no “safe” ways of leveraging, only rules of thumb. Leveraging, simply put, is one among many tools of financial management and capital structuring, and has its risks. Real businessmen understand risks, and survive. Others pretend to, and fail.

PS: A blog run by economists sympathetic to the Austrian School that I discovered while writing this post (thanks, Wikipedia) – Organizations and Markets; it has some posts on the financial crisis (how can any self-respecting economist not write about it?). I have read precisely one post, but it looks interesting.

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